2011年10月26日星期三

Premier Foods in profit warning

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7 October 2011 Last updated at 07:14 GMT Mr Kipling Bramley apple pies Mr Kipling is one of the eight "power brands" the group is investing in Premier Foods, the owner of brands such as Hovis, Bisto and Mr Kipling, has warned its full-year trading profit will fall below expectations.

The UK's biggest food manufacturer had been looking at a profit of between £214m and £232m.

But the company said current trading was "disappointing" and "significantly behind our expectations".

Sales in the third quarter fell 3.6% on a year ago, while the group's market share declined by 1.9%.

The group said it was in "constructive dialogue" with banks on refinancing.

New chief executive Michael Clarke has outlined five key priorities for the business in the short term.

These are agreeing a refinancing plan, improving sales and marketing, reducing the size of Premier's portfolio, reducing costs, and investing in eight "power brands" that they feel have the best growth prospects.

The eight brands are Ambrosia, Batchelor's, Bisto, Hovis, Lloyd Grossman, Mr Kipling, Oxo and Sharwood's.

Mr Clarke, who had previously been president of Kraft Foods Europe, took the helm at Premier Foods on 1 September.


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Icelandic doubts about the euro

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29 September 2011 Last updated at 23:07 GMT By Paul Henley BBC News, Iceland Formal negotiations for Iceland to join the EU come in the middle of the eurozone crisis

Bombarded as Europeans are, these days, by news of economic disaster in the eurozone, few would expect countries to be queuing up to adopt the single currency.

But in Iceland, which this summer opened formal negations to become a member of the EU, the troubled currency remains the big attraction.

"Compared to the Icelandic krona, the euro is like a rock in the sea, you know," is how Gylvi Arnbjoernsson, president of the Icelandic Confederation of Labour, puts it.

He represents an impressive 85% of his country's workers, and he firmly believes joining the EU would benefit them.

"This is partly because we are already members of the European Economic Area (EEA) and enjoying, and also meeting, the challenges of Europe," he says.

"And it is also because the stability of the euro is such that it would be better than the fluctuations of our own currency.

"For the last 50 years in Iceland, the krona has been used to transfer wealth, every 10 years or so, from the workers to the employers, the companies."

In the aftermath of Iceland's big economic crash of 2008, EU membership was suddenly an attractive prospect to many Icelanders - probably a majority of them - because of the safety-in-numbers it seemed to offer.

But times have changed.

Not only are Icelanders taking note of the increasingly frantic efforts of politicians in countries hundreds of kilometres away to save the euro, they are finding that their own financial circumstances constitute less of an emergency.

The conditions attached to their bailout by the IMF seem comparatively lenient.

The new government of 2009 was allowed to carry on borrowing and spending for another year before the cuts kicked in.

In the meantime, devaluation - something impossible for eurozone members - meant all-important exports suddenly became competitive again. Unemployment is already falling.

Many people's mortgages were quietly "re-negotiated" by the newly nationalised banks. The richest 5-7% of the population have been subjected to a new wealth tax.

The welfare state and the health service were shielded from the biggest savings and public sector workers have recently been awarded an above-inflation wage rise.

Opinion polls suggest a clear majority of Icelanders now oppose joining the EU and the finance minister, overseeing all these changes, is among them.

Steingrimur Sigfusson says his country's size has been crucial in the move towards recovery: "You are quicker turning a small boat around than a big ship.

"And that is, I think, what is being proven: that the small, vibrant Icelandic economy, including having our own currency, makes adapting quicker."

Fisheries obstacle

The biggest sticking point for those currently negotiating the possible terms of Iceland's EU membership will undoubtedly be fishing rights.

Iceland owns the rights to 200 nautical miles around its shores.

It fishes and manages them exclusively, sustaining stocks upon which it relies for 70% of its total export business. Gone are the days when banking was Iceland's biggest business.

In the determined fishing community of the Westmann Islands, off the south coast of Iceland, the resistance seems unanimous to any change that might bring EU boats within reach of these waters.

A population of about 4,000, sheltered by intimidating cliffs - black and sheer - in what is the windiest inhabited place on Earth, relies on year-round catches of cod, mackerel and scampi.

Sigmar Oskarsson remembers the Cod Wars with the British in the 1970s, when Iceland last demonstrated the strength of its resistance to foreign fishing fleets.

He is a youthful-looking fisherman of 50, as sceptical as all his colleagues about the idea of EU membership.

"Icelandic fishermen want to keep their jobs," he says.

"We know from our Scottish colleagues how difficult it can be when other nationalities, like the Spanish, fish their grounds.

"We are good at catching fish and good at protecting them. We have been good at it for a hundred years and we want to keep going, to live on fish."

Neither he nor his bosses at the local fishing company go into detail about the fact that Icelandic concerns own substantial amounts of the fishing and fish processing industries in other EU countries, particularly the UK and Germany.

Such extensive foreign involvement would not be allowed under Icelandic law, so it is not as if there is already a level playing field.

Splendid isolation

As the pro and anti campaigns hot up in preparation for a referendum on EU membership, Icelanders will most likely continue to consider themselves a special case.

And their unique isolation within Europe might well prove be too precious an asset for them to compromise.

One of Iceland's most successful artistic exports, the film director and actor Baltasar Kormakur (101 Reykjavik, Jar City), puts it like this when I meet him in a cafe during the city's film festival: "We actually take it for granted that we will get a different treatment from other nationalities.

"We will always be the special kid in the class because we're small. We're not that important. We're like: 'You can't do that to us, you can't take our fish'."

He adds: "It's really hard to beat somebody up who seems too weak to be beaten up."


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2011年10月25日星期二

NBNK confirms Lloyds branches bid

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29 September 2011 Last updated at 08:50 GMT Sign outside a Lloyds TSB branch in London Lloyds Banking Group has until the end of 2013 to sell the 632 branches New banking venture NBNK Investments has confirmed that it has made a bid to buy 632 Lloyds Banking Group branches.

NBNK did not reveal the value of its offer, but the BBC understands it is about £1.5bn.

Lloyds is being forced to sell the branches by European Commission competition authorities.

NBNK, which was co-founded by Lord Levene, chairman of insurer Lloyd's of London, said there was "no certainty that a transaction will be completed".

Lloyds has been given until the end of 2013 to dispose of the branches.

Two other potential bidders have been linked with the Lloyds disposal: Co-operative Financial Services and Sun Capital, a US investment firm.

Lloyds is having to sell the branches as a result of it needing state-aid from the UK government, which currently still holds a 41% stake in the bank.

The branches being sold include some of Lloyds' main Lloyds TSB brand, plus Cheltenham & Gloucester and Halifax outlets.


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Sales for Baker Greggs

October 6, 2011, last updated Greggs 09: 41 GMT Greggs has challenged the United Kingdom market downturn Greggs Baker reported an increase in sales in the third quarter despite the economic depression.

13 weeks to October 1, total sales increased 5.4%, as for like growth of 0.8%.

The company said it continued to see good growth in sales breakfast, including the launch of the all-fair coffee shops.

During weeks 39 year financial, Greggs opened shops in 66 and 13, making the net increase of 53.

Slowdown defied

Analysts believe that Greggs has defied the downturn with relatively low transaction values its in its branches.

There are shops 1,376 across United Kingdom, selling six million customers a week.

She plans to open a total of 80 new stores by the end of its financial year.

Administrative Declaration, he said: "we remain confident the chances of the group, our expectations for the year remained unchanged.

"Looking further forward until 2012, there are signs of easing inflation rate price goods in some areas, with the notable exception of energy."


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US services sector 'sheds jobs'

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 15:04 GMT Employees at an H&M store in Florida The three different surveys gave conflicting signals ahead of the official jobs data release on Friday Employment in the US non-manufacturing sectors may have fallen in September, a survey has suggested, although output growth remained steady.

The ISM non-manufacturing index, which tracks services and construction sector activity, fell to 53 from 53.3 in August. Levels above 50 imply growth.

But the survey's employment sub-index dropped to 48.7, indicating job losses for the first time in 12 months.

However, separate data suggested the US private sector was still adding jobs.

The ADP jobs report, which is compiled each month by a major US outsourcing firm, registered 91,000 new private sector jobs across the US economy as a whole in September, somewhat ahead of market expectations.

The bulk of those new jobs, according to the report, were in the service sector - which accounts for about 80% of all jobs in the US.

The clear discrepancy with the non-manufacturing sector survey conducted by the Institute of Supply Management may point to a jump in government-sector job losses, which would be included in the ISM index, but not in the ADP report.

"The most significant thing is the employment index which fell," said Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM's survey committee.

"This is a very tell-tale sign for non-manufacturing, given how labor intensive this sector is. The drop in the employment index reflects the prevailing sentiment in the business community which is one of caution, hesitation and uncertainty."

Meanwhile a third report, by consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, calculated that nearly 116,000 job cuts were announced last month - the highest rate since April 2009 - thanks largely to layoffs by Bank of America and the US military.

Official US jobs data for September is due to be released on Friday by the US Department of Labor, and is expected to show an increase of 60,000 jobs for the US economy as a whole.


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A lost decade for investors?

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27 September 2011 Last updated at 07:46 GMT By Gemma Godfrey Investment committee chairman, Credo Capital Gemma Godfrey Gemma Godfrey: there is an investing "sweet spot" Over the past 10 years, investors have experienced a stark divergence of fortunes, with some making substantial amounts of money whilst others have suffered losses.

Timing, picking the right investments and employing the right strategy have determined their fate.

When investing, timing can be crucial. You make money if you buy something when it is cheap and sell it when it is perceived to be more valuable. If you buy the same object when its price is high, making a profit will be that much harder.

In the run up to the year 2000, investors bought shares in technology companies to such an extent that values predicted firms would make unrealistic profits. This 'bubble' burst and the stock market fell. September 2001, the start of our 10 year period, lies within this period of selling. Therefore, together with the fall from the financial crisis in 2008, losses were enough to offset the substantial gains achieved in the seven years between these events.

Investing in the 'sweet spot'

An initial investment of £100 in the FTSE 100 (the index of the 100 largest companies listed in the UK), would have fallen in value by 4%, returning only £96 all these years later.

This return hides a huge divergence of fortunes. Firstly, when choosing the size of the firm in which to invest, there appears to have been a 'sweet spot' for medium-sized firms in the FTSE 250 (the next 250 companies after the largest 100 listed on the London Stock Exchange) - small enough to grow substantially, but large enough to have weathered the storms.

Secondly, the sector. The shares of companies selling basic materials almost tripled in value over the past decade, in contrast to those of financial firms, which lost half the initial investment. The belief driving these moves was that certain materials (for example copper and iron) have become harder to mine and produce, making their producers more valuable. In contrast, banks have suffered from loan defaults, bankruptcies and increased regulation, which have all hurt profits.

Thirdly, the geographic focus. Whilst investing in UK, US or European companies on the whole produced meagre returns or losses, investing in the developing markets of China, Russia or Brazil generated astounding returns; Brazil stands out with a gain of 578%.

Investment returns of different markets Basic Materials outpaced the FTSE 250, while the FTSE 100 did better than financial shares Reinvesting is key

Short-term investment decisions have had as much of an impact as choosing where to place money for the longer term.

During our investment timeline, many companies regularly paid a portion of their profits to shareholders, so-called dividends. How an investor used this payment strongly dictated how much money they made.

If it was re-invested back into the stock market it continued to generate returns, if it was put into their bank account it did far less.

Returns when re-investing The MSCI World Equity index - boosted by reinvesting returns, lagging when taking out the money Wealth of opportunity

There are other assets an investor could have bought apart from shares, some of which performed far better and greatly enhanced the amount of money made over this period.

Lending to governments or companies in developing countries proved highly profitable, with relatively large interest payments made to the lender (i.e. the investor) until the loan was repaid.

Another interesting investment was property, which in general provided investors with highly attractive returns over the past decade, even after the sharp correction during the recent recession.

Finally, hedge funds, like investors, have had a mixture of fortunes. With focus on different markets, some have made staggering returns whilst others are still nursing losses.

Interestingly, it has not been worthwhile to bet on a falling market. Money managers lost money if they focused solely on making a profit when certain investments fell in value.

Unsurprisingly, fund managers with investments in emerging markets (like Brazil, Russia and China) almost tripled their initial investments.

When investing, during the past decade it paid to be particular.

Emerging markets returns Brazil was the top performer; hedge fund investments in emerging markets were runner up; government bonds did well; the S&P Global Property index provided returns; UK stocks were lagging

Gemma Godfrey is a quantum physicist, former hedge fund manager and now chairman of the investment committee of wealth management firm Credo Capital.

The opinions expressed are those of the author and are not held by the BBC unless specifically stated. The material is for general information only and does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other form of advice. You should not rely on this information to make (or refrain from making) any decisions. Links to external sites are for information only and do not constitute endorsement. Always obtain independent, professional advice for your own particular situation.


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PM warns over eurozone break-up

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2 October 2011 Last updated at 12:27 GMT David Cameron David Cameron warns that the UK cannot shield itself from the crisis in the eurozone Prime Minister David Cameron has warned that it would be "very bad" for the UK if the eurozone was to break up.

Speaking to the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, he said the debt crisis in the eurozone was "a threat not just to itself, but also a threat to the UK economy, and a threat to the world economy".

He reiterated that eurozone leaders had to take quick and decisive action.

Mr Cameron said that, as 40% of UK exports went to the eurozone, it could not shield itself from the problem.

The prime minister said the UK government had "a very clear view" of what needed to be done, and that it was pushing this with its partners in Europe and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

He said eurozone leaders had to strengthen the region's financial mechanisms, ensure the greater involvement of the IMF, and deal decisively with the high levels of sovereign debt.

Mr Cameron added: "Action needs to be taken in the next coming weeks to strengthen Europe's banks, to build the defences that the eurozone has, to deal with the problems of debts decisively."

He said these emergency measures were needed before any long-term plans of more economic coordination across the eurozone were introduced, such as a single tax system.

Greek fears

European stock markets again fell heavily on Friday due to concerns about the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Continue reading the main story Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating GO The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is miniscule.It meant that for the three months from July to September, the main UK share index, the FTSE 100, recorded its biggest quarterly fall since 2002.

The concerns centre on Greece, the most indebted eurozone nation.

Greece needs its next 8bn euros (£6.9bn; $10.9bn) instalment of European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout loans by the middle of this month to be able to continue paying its civil servants and teachers.

This tranche was delayed in September after EU, IMF and European Central Bank officials said the Greek government was not carrying out sufficient austerity measures.

The wider fear is that Greece will ultimately default on its debt payments, and of the knock-on effect this would have on banks across Europe which own Greek government bonds.

Some commentators also warn that Greece may ultimately have to leave the eurozone, plunging the region's economic and political systems into chaos.

Eurozone leaders and the IMF are now continuing to work on a solution to the debt crisis, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel due to speak again this week.


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